Barzola in Round 3 (+1400)
The Mexico City’s altitude will play a big factor throughout the card. No matter how good your gas-tank is, if you’re not adjusted to the altitude, you will gas after 10 mins of fighting, if not earlier. In fights like this, where you have a grappler in Barzola, with an above average wrestling game, taking on a low-level brawler such as Avila, most likely it’ll be the latter gassing out earlier than his counterpart. Reason being, the brawler ends up carrying the wrestler’s (Barzola) weight for long periods of time. That said, unless Barzola decides to stand and bang, i see him grinding out Avila via top position for two rounds, before taking him out with a third-round submission.
Alvey Inside the Distance (-115)
The odds are low, but this is definitely a good matchup for Alvey. His opponent Nicholson is known for going for crazy stuff, and ends up making a lot of mistakes in the process. Also, Alvey has the better technique overall, better striking, and the better ground game. The only problem, is that he’s kind of a slow starter, but I still see him putting Nicholson away, even in round 3.
Grasso in Round 3 (+1400)
Grasso should beat Heather Jo Clark, and probability-wise, most likely by decision. Obviously, there is a lot of hype on Grasso, therefore the odds are way higher than they should be. But I still favor her quite a bit. She has cleaner boxing, and let’s be honest with ourselves, she’s better than Heather Jo Clark in every aspect of the game, except for experience. That said, in my honest opinion, she SHOULD get the finish in her UFC debut. She’s young and she’s on fire. Meanwhile, Heather Jo Clark is 36, started her career pretty late, and I don’t see her hanging for 15 minutes in Mexico City’s altitude. Most likely, she will gas late, and it’ll be up to Grasso to capitalize on that. Whether she gets it or not, we’ll have to wait & see, but the odds are good enough for a bet.
Perez in Round 3 (+1600)
This will be an entertaining back-and-forth fight, until Arantes starts to gas, and Goyito settles in. I can see this ending in a number of ways, though, despite the odds saying it’ll be Goyito winning a close decision. But all things considered, I have to go with the value, and I think Perez, if he fights smart, and tires out Arantes, will probably have a chance to get a late stoppage and please his loyal Mexican fans.
Lamas in Round 3 (+2100)
Oliveira is one of the best submission finishers in the UFC, that’s true, but I have to go with the public’s opinion on this fight. If Oliveira doesn’t get an early finish, I think he’s probably going to “quit”, like he’s done in previous fights. Lamas is not a quitter, and he can definitely capitalize, given the opportunity. If this fights goes deep, like I’m expecting, I truly believe Lamas will just go for broke in round 3, and hopefully ends up with the finish.