Ilir Latifi (+185) & Latifi in Round 1 (+500)
Latifi has good enough take down defense to keep this fight on the feet, where he has the speed advantage with his hands, and the much better chin. With Latifi, there’s always the worry about him gassing, and possibly losing a decision, but the value we’re getting here is worth the risk. Bader might be better technique-wise, but this isn’t a good matchup for him. He will need to wear down Latifi for three full rounds, enroute to a decision, and that’s not an easy task for any fighter.
Josh Barnett via KO/TKO (+260)
I believe the whole “Pit Bull” resurgence is long gone. He was TKO’d by both Stipe Miocic & Alistair Overeem in his last two fights, which showed the fight miles that his body (and more importantly, his chin), has endured in 38 professional fights. In a heavyweight fight, I’ve always been successful favoring the guy with the better chin and durability, and while Barnett isn’t exactly in his “best form” either, he does have a significant advantage over Arlovski these days. I see Barnett knocking out Arlovski’s soft chin in round 1 or 2, and love the value we’re getting at (+260).