Jim Miller (+130)
I truly believe that Miller has all the tools to beat a washed-up Thiago Alves, who is also dropping down a weight class. Miller has better wrestling, jiu-jitsu game, and is coming off a little momentum with two straight victories. Plus, Alves has had an extremely tough time cutting weight, per several reports, which adds an extra bit of confidence on my pick. Miller can be found currently at +130/+140, which is a really nice price.
Belal Muhammad (+105)
I think Muhammed has a more consistent strategy to win fights, than Vincente Luque does. Belal has a better technique on the feet, good chin, good cardio, and mixes up everything really well. Plus, unlike his counterpart, he isn’t taking the fight on short notice. Luque’s got some hype on him, which is why the line is where it’s at, but even with a full camp, I’d still take Muhammad as the dog.
Tim Boetsch (+135)
The odds say “Natal wins by grinding out Boetsch”, but I just don’t see it. It wont be easy to get takedowns on Boetsch, plus Boestch can outstrike him on the feet. Also, Boetsch has more power, he can KO anybody, and has slightly better cardio than Natal, which should win him the later rounds if/when they get there.
Yoel Romero (+160)
The “Soldier of God” has been an underdog in his last 4 fights, and he still won all of them, some in devastating fashion. People always question his cardio and chin, which is hard to argue against, but the dude always battles through it. This time, the odds are once again against him, but to me, his chances of winning are actually way higher than the line indicates. Weidman is coming off neck surgery, which is not easy to recover from, and didn’t look good in his last fight. Yes, he’s fighting in his hometown of New York, but that’s probably the only thing that favors him. Not to mention, that’s already factored into the price. He won’t be able to implement a wrestling-heavy gameplan, at least not in the early part of the fight, and it won’t be easy for him to outstrike Romero. I just think Romero has more ways to win, he can KO Weidman at any time, or also win a decision by landing the harder shots.