SuparTipstar’s UFC best bet record to date is +6.14u for an ROI of 10.57%.
The focus of my best bet tonight is the women’s bantamweight matchup between Macy Chiasson and Sarah Moras.
My thoughts on this fight are similar to the last time I bet Moras so I will link to that article here.
The short version is Moras is good at armbars and not much else, this weights highly in her spread of win probabilities, in the women’s divisions such a skill is more impactful and is usually underrated in the betting line. This time she has a bigger, tougher opponent in Chiasson and is unlikely to pull it off, but value is value.
Chiasson is not the next big thing. She is a raw fighter, she’s just big enough to have power which is what sets her apart in my eyes. She still does the “bull rush with head up in the air throwing straight punches” we see all the time, but if they land it’s a problem. She can take you out to the body with kicks and knees a lot of these women are not prepared for.
It’s still a low level women’s MMA fight and with the line movement noted on MMAforMoney Radio, it’s difficult to pass up Moras even though she is poor and unlikely to win. Chiasson nearly got herself caught in an armbar against Kianzad and that has plenty of chance of happening again, even if it isn’t as likely as Moras crumbling to power strikes she has no ability to defend.
My best bet for UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy is Sarah Moras by submission @ 14.25, +1325 (5Dimes). This is a 1u bet.