SuparTipstar’s UFC Best Bet record to date is 11-31, +8.6u for an ROI of 17.52%.
The focus of my best bet tonight is the main event, flyweight championship fight between Henry Cejudo and TJ Dillashaw.
Far too much of the build up to this fight has been focused on Dillashaw’s weight cut and a lot of potentially interesting discussion has been lost. TJ made the weight and unless he walks into the cage completely depleted all of that talk was for nothing.
TJ is not a big or tall guy at bantamweight, but against Cejudo he has added height and reach advantages. The more important thing for me is the change in strategy I have observed him take in the past couple of years. I think that last split decision loss to Cruz may have triggered it, but TJ seems to have built himself physically, with his coach Sam, to bring hell for 25 minutes, and if dominance is not established early on to the point where a decision loss is extremely unlikely, TJ will not settle for a close points fight.
With that in mind I would be surprised to see this go the way of a TJ vs Cruz or Cejudo vs DJ 2. I think TJ brings the animal in him tonight and outclasses Cejudo on the feet, with enough grappling skill to avoid trouble from Cejudo’s plan B. My question is can Cejudo take it from the best 135er in the world for 25 minutes? I don’t see it.
At this point I’d usually say my best bet is TJ ITD, but going back to what I said above about TJ pushing it these days and forcing battles, while his recovery is excellent his chin just isn’t and I don’t put it passed Cejudo to lay one on him and shock everybody. These are two great fighters with great skillsets, but I don’t see a stalemate as probable.
My best bet for UFC Fight Night 143 is Cejudo vs Dillashaw does not go the distance @ 2.05, +105 (Ladbrokes). This is a 1u bet.