SuparTipstar’s UFC Fight Night 140 Best Bet

SuparTipstar’s UFC Best Bet record to date is 11-26, +15.6u for an ROI of 37.05%. 

The focus of my best bet tonight is the flyweight fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Ulka Sasaki.
I’m a big fan of Sasaki and for reasons that tie into this week’s edition of the MMAforMoney podcast. He always fights aggressively and with intent, you always know what you are getting. He is a tall lanky flyweight with pretty wild striking but the key to how he gets his victories tends to be his incredible back snatching ability. Be it from a scramble, from his own guard, from clinch positions or even from failed strike attempts. Sasaki gets the back.
It’s a little bit of a catch 22 though as his wild and aggressive style does not stop on the feet, and as such he sometimes compromises his own scramble ability and loses position. It’s no shocker that the guys he has lost to – Formiga, Reis, Issa – are extremely good grapplers.
Pantoja is a more traditional fighter and packs a lot more heat in his strikes. He comes in as the favourite despite his height and reach disadvantages. I think the general consensus is he will out strike Sasaki, keep the fight on the feet, and if / when Sasaki gets aggressive to close the distance, he is more likely to catch power from Pantoja then get the scramble he wants.
I am not as comfortable with Pantoja’s chances of avoiding grappling scrambles unless he catches a KO or big shot early to subdue Sasaki. Pantoja is not the level of grappler that Sasaki has come up short against, and I think his mad man style gives him a greater chance of securing his position in this fight than the market is crediting.
Early round props are showing greater value here than the submission.
My best bet(s) for UFC Fight Night 140 is Ulka Sasaki in Round 1 @ 15.0, +1400 (Bet365) and Ulka Sasaki in Round 2 @ 17.0, +1600 (Bet365). Both of these bets are 0.5u.